Is an Eritrean “all-out invasion” of Ethiopia “a matter of public record”, as Ethiopia told the UN?

What was claimed

In a letter to the UN Security Council dated 8 October, Ethiopia’s government wrote: “The all-out invasion of parts of northern Ethiopia by Eritrea is a matter of public record. It is a blatant act of aggression that engages Ethiopia’s inherent right to self-defence.” Reuters reported the letter on 9 October after a senior Ethiopian official shared it A. We have kept a copy B.

Ethiopia’s foreign minister, Gedion Timothewos, separately said Eritrean forces had advanced up to 60 km into Tigray A.

Reuters reported the letter accurately and attributed it to the Ethiopian government. It is the letter’s claim that we have checked.

What the public record contains

The letter itself appeals to the public record, so that is what we examined. As of 9 October, it contains the following, and each item comes from one side or is unverified:

• Witness accounts. Two people told Reuters they saw dozens of soldiers they identified as Eritrean pass through Adigrat in two trucks on 7 October. Reuters said it could not independently verify their accounts C.
• An Eritrean denial. Eritrea’s information minister denied, according to Reuters, that Eritrean forces were there, and said Ethiopia was “fabricating various allegations against Eritrea” D.
• Claims by a party to the conflict. A commander of the Tigray Peace Force, which is allied with the Ethiopian government, said Eritrean personnel had entered two towns. The Associated Press said it could not verify his account E.
• A conflict monitor’s report. ACLED said Eritrean troops had crossed the border and been targeted by drones. AP said it could not verify that either, and that ACLED had not answered a question about the basis for its claims E. According to Reuters, ACLED also said the drone strikes hit Eritrean forces as they withdrew from positions near Adigrat A.
• An anonymous estimate. AFP cited an unnamed foreign security source estimating 5,000 to 8,000 Eritrean soldiers in Tigray G.
• Monitors’ caution. Addis Standard reported that independent conflict monitors said reports of an expanded Eritrean presence remained “difficult to verify independently” F.

What the public record does not contain

We found no independent confirmation, from journalists on the ground, satellite imagery, the United Nations, the African Union or another neutral observer, that Eritrean troops are inside Ethiopia. We found nothing at all, independent or otherwise, describing an invasion on the scale of an “all-out” one, and no independent source for the foreign minister’s figure of 60 km.

Our verdict

Unsupported. Ethiopia told the UN Security Council that an Eritrean “all-out invasion” is “a matter of public record”. The public record consists of unverified and disputed accounts, and an Eritrean denial. It does not establish an invasion of any scale, still less an all-out one. We will review this fact check if independent evidence emerges.